ITS UC Davis hosted a seminar/webinar titled “Greenhouse Gas emissions reduction potential and associated costs from transportation and land use strategies for 50 states”.  The speaker for this seminar was Dr. Lewison Lem of Jack Faucett Associates presenting preliminary results of an ongoing “50 states study”.  You can access the taped webinar at http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/events/seminarseries/winter10/ and highlights of the presentation are summarized below.    

“50 States Study”

Jack Faucett Associates and the Center for Climate Strategies (CCS) (www.climatestrategies.us) are completing 50 states worth of data and policy work on transportation sector ghg mitigation reduction potential, costs, and economic impacts.  Currently, there are many states with completed climate action plans or plans underway.  Part of the goal of this 50 states data is to answer the question of, “What would the impact be if all 50 states implemented climate action plans?”

CCS used results from 16 state planning processes to project ghg reduction potential and costs or savings to obtain 50 states worth of data.  Under the category of Transportation and Land Use, CCS looked at six policies and analyzed their potential impacts.  Much of the analysis was conducted using the US Department of Energy’s VISION tool.  These results came from 16 states worth of data on climate action plans.  The remaining 34 states were extrapolated using a “middle of the road” type plan of the existing 16. 

Transit Leverage Research

Dr. Lem also presented on a transit leverage literature review conducted for the state of New Jersey climate action plan (appendix located at http://www.nj.gov/dep/oce/gwr.htm).  The analysis of the potential for VMT reduction relies upon a well-established body of research and policy analysis that incorporates the concept of ‘transit leverage’. Statistical studies have shown a more energy-efficient use of the transportation system that is not fully accounted for simply by ‘mode shift’ from private automobiles to bus and rail transit. There has been increasing understanding that transit networks also allow for more trip chaining, shorter driving trips, and more walking trips.

The research shows an overall consensus on the general range of the transit leverage effect, namely somewhere between 2 and 7 times for North American urban areas. This means that for every mile reduction in VMT due to increased transit options and mode shift, between 2 and 7 additional miles are reduced due to indirect or secondary effects. 

The appendices also provide the following general methodology for quantifying and allocating the indirect effects of transit on VMT:

• An urban growth boundary can provide an impact roughly equal to the direct transit effect (i.e., it has a leverage of 1.0 “units” or 1.0 times the direct effect).
• A low level of travel demand management (TDM) programs can produce an effect roughly half as large as direct transit investment or 0.5x the direct effect.
• A high level of TDM programs can produce an additional 1.0 unit effect, for a total potential of 1.5x the direct effect from TDM programs.
• A program of significant auto use pricing (some combination of fuel taxes, tolls and other facility charges, parking charges, etc) can have an effect equal to the overall TDM effect.
• Congestion reduction associated with transit has an estimated effect that is 0.2x the direct transit effect.
• The remaining indirect effects may be considered to be mainly related to land use, including overall residential and job density, as well as transit-oriented development and other aspects of ‘smart growth’.

Biographical Sketch: Dr. Lewison Lem is climate change practice leader for Jack Faucett Associates. He has extensive experience in the areas of policy analysis at the intersection of transportation, energy, and the environment. Dr. Lem was formerly a senior tansportation policy analyst at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality, and the transportation policy manager of AAA of Northern California, Nevada, and Utah. Dr. Lem has assisted more than 30 states with consensus-building, policy development, and technical analysis for state energy and climate plans. Dr. Lem has managed economic and environmental studies for a wide range of public, private, and philanthropic organizations, including the United States Congress, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the Energy Foundation. He has been a visiting scholar and guest lecturer at several universities, including the University of California – Berkeley, Portland State University, the University of Hawaii, and Florida State University. Dr. Lem has a Bachelor of Arts in government studies from Harvard University, a Master of Public Administration degree from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. in urban planning from the University of California – Los Angeles.

High Speed Rail Shapes the Golden State

“..work has begun that could lead to something California has never had – an explicit government vision for how and where the state should grow”  (State Exploring Growth Strategy”, John King, SF Chronicle Nov 8, 2009) 

“Vision California” is an unprecedented statewide effort to explore the critical role of land use and transportation investments such as High Speed Rail in meeting the environmental and fiscal challenges facing the Golden State over the coming decades. The study, funded by the California High Speed Rail Authority and the state’s Strategic Growth Council, will examine alternative land use and transportation scenarios through which California can accommodate expected growth and create a more sustainable future.

Fehr & Peers is providing the transportation expertise on the Vision California team, a team that is lead by Calthorpe Associates, and that also includes experts in land use, natural resources, energy and public health. The work is a natural extension of Fehr & Peers’ work for the US Environmental Protection Agency on 4D and MXD modeling tools and our role helping define the process for addressing California’s AB32 and SB375 climate laws as participants in California State Air Resources Board Regional Targets Advisory Committee. 

Meeting the targets established by AB32 and SB375 will require a new direction in how the state invests in and develops its communities, transportation systems, and critical infrastructure.  Vision California will develop and apply tools that illustrate and comprehensively measure the role of land use and High Speed Rail and SB 375-mandated regional “Sustainable Communities Strategies” in meeting AB 32 greenhouse gas targets.

“We need better tools. Different patterns of growth can have a huge impact on how the state uses its resources.” (Mehdi Morshed, Executive Director, California High Speed Rail Authority)

The study will include statewide scenario development and modeling coordinated with the Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) in each of the regions served by High Speed Rail. The regions will be described though a detailed mapping of “place types” at a 5-acre scale.  Each region will be defined in terms of three alternative visions for future land use and transportation:  officially adopted plans, sustainable plans devised under the regions’ “blueprint” visioning processes, and further-refined plans developed by the study team to integrate High Speed Rail and the policies favored under the state’s Sustainable Communities Strategies.

Fehr & Peers will develop the system through which the scenarios will be evaluated and compared with respect to their effects on transportation infrastructure and the environment. The evaluation will account for place-type’s unique density, location, urban design, transportation network, and demographic context. It will also consider the effects of travel demand management and transportation systems management “best management practices” as defined in the SB 375 target setting process.  The evaluation will provide clear evidence for state, regional and local decision-makers on the effects of the statewide planning visions on California’s future vehicle miles traveled, energy consumption and greenhouse emissions, transit mode shares, walking and bicycling and public heath, cost and fiscal impacts.

CCAP Press Release:  

New Study Shows Smart Growth and Improved Transportation Choices will Reduce GHG Emissions and Save Americans Money

Washington, DC — The Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) released a study today concluding that comprehensive application of smart growth best practices and improved transportation choices could significantly reduce transportation emissions at a cost savings to society.  The study is released as House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman James Oberstar announces his outline for surface transportation authorization legislation. 

Most greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction studies miss the benefits of smart growth and improved transportation choices.  However, the new CCAP study shows that these policies can reduce the amount Americans need to drive — as measured in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) — by 10 percent per capita from 2005 levels.  A 10 percent reduction in per capita VMT would reduce annual transportation emissions by 145 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MMTCO₂) in the year 2030, equivalent to the annual emissions of about 30 million cars or 35 large coal plants.  These reductions would equal approximately 6 percent of the 2030 GHG reduction goal proposed in the American Clean Energy and Security Act.

The new study, titled “Cost-Effective GHG Reductions through Smart Growth & Improved Transportation Choices: An economic case for strategic investment of cap-and-trade revenues,” was prepared with input from Transportation for America, Smart Growth America, Natural Resources Defense Council, Environmental Defense Fund, Rails to Trails and HDR.

Climate advocates say that addressing the transportation emissions is critical for reducing U.S. GHG emissions because nearly one third of U.S. emissions come from transportation, making it the nation’s largest end-use source of emissions.  Furthermore, transportation is the fastest growing source of U.S. emissions.

“We cannot address climate change without addressing transportation emissions.  Our analysis indicates that we can achieve transportation emissions reductions with significant economic benefits, yielding net cost savings per ton CO₂, when factoring in avoided infrastructure costs, consumer fuel and insurance cost savings and projected tax revenue growth from high value economic development,” said Steve Winkelman, director of transportation and adaptation programs at CCAP. “These positive economic findings hold at local, regional, state and national levels.” 

CCAP reviewed a number of reports and case studies about U.S. cities and states that demonstrate how making smarter land use and transportation choices reduces emissions and saves money. For example, Sacramento projects GHG savings of 7.2 MMT CO₂ by 2050, while saving $9 billion in infrastructure costs and $380 million in annual consumer fuel costs, yielding a net economic benefit of almost $200 per ton of CO₂ saved. Portland, Oregon’s investments in bicycle infrastructure will reduce emissions by 0.7 MMTCO₂, with net economic benefits of more than $1,000 per ton CO₂ saved. 

At the state level, Georgia could save more than $400 billion over 30 years, while saving 18 MMTCO₂ with strategic investments in transit, freight and travel demand management (e.g., four day work weeks, telecommuting, carpooling).  In Atlanta, Georgia, the Atlantic Station redevelopment project is reducing residents’ need to drive by more than 30 percent, which would cut 0.6 MMTCO₂ over 50 years, and generate $30 million per year in much-needed local tax revenue.

The study points out that although the price signal from a national cap-and-trade system will be sufficient to change behavior of major point sources of emissions, it will be far less effective in influencing travel demand for Americans.  This study demonstrates that achieving economy-wide emissions reductions will be less costly if strategies include smart growth and improved travel choices.  Therefore, CCAP recommends dedicating 10 percent of national cap-and-trade allowance value to smart growth and improved transportation choices. 

Winkelman said that this investment will jump start smarter land use and transportation choices at the local, regional, and state levels while lowering economy-wide GHG mitigation costs.

“It is time to invest in our citizens, to improve their health, their quality of life, their neighborhoods and their employment opportunities — by supporting smart growth and improved transportation options,” said Winkelman.  “The U.S. should seek investments that bring the greatest benefits to society, particularly during this economic downturn. This study shows that smart growth pays dividends to all citizens.”

This summer, CCAP will release a more in-depth review of the economic impacts of smart growth and improved transportation choices, called “Growing Wealthier: The Economic Benefits of Smart Growth.” 

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For more information on CCAP’s smart growth and transportation program, please visit: http://www.ccap.org/index.php?component=programs&id=35. 

Since 1985, CCAP has been a recognized world leader in climate and air quality policy and is the only independent, non-profit think-tank working exclusively on those issues at the local, national and international levels. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., CCAP helps policymakers around the world to develop, promote and implement innovative, market-based solutions to major climate, air quality and energy problems that balance both environmental and economic interests.  For more information about CCAP, please visit www.ccap.org.