California MPOs Reveal Results of SB375 Soul-Searching

June 12, 2010 By Leave a Comment

In May, California’s Metropolitan Planning Organizations revealed their self-assessments of their ability to curb climate change.  MPOs representing over 90% of the state’s population went on record with estimates of their “ambitious and achievable” 25-year reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

The announcements followed more than seven months of public outreach and stakeholder discussions, scenario testing and modeling representing the “bottom up process” within the regions to assess their GHG reduction potential.  The process was prescribed by the State’s SB375 Regional Targets Advisory Committee (RTAC) in its September 2009 report California Air Resources Board. The resulting MPO reports will inform the Board’s deliberations on regional GHG targets required under the California’s landmark SB375 climate legislation.

MPOs representing the state’s four major regions Los Angeles (SCAG), San Francisco (MTC), San Diego (SANDAG) and Sacramento (SACOG) submitted a unified report, though the proposed land use and transportation strategies varied from region to region (as shown in the following table), as did each regions’ estimated performance levels.  The MPOs and Regional Transportation Planning Agencies representing Fresno, Kern, Kings, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, Butte, and Shasta counties also presented target-setting proposals.

Based on information provided for the May 25 RTAC meeting, the MPO land use and transportation scenarios identified as “ambitious but achievable” would reduce GHG per capita in 2020 to between 5% and 11% below 2005 levels.  Each MPO estimated that its region could double those reductions by 2020 through much more aggressive land use, demand management and transportation investment strategies that they deemed very ambitious, but not necessarily achievable.

Ambitious Enough?

The reported scenarios and performance levels provoked a full day’s public comment and discussion by the RTAC.  Observations by RTAC member Jerry Walters, along with his opinions on unresolved issues appear here. Questions include whether the MPO scenarios and GHG reductions are ambitious enough, including:

  • whether assumptions on land use respond to anticipated growth in market demand for compact growth
  • whether roadway pricing assumptions were ambitious enough, given the above-mentioned modest escalation in fuel prices projected over the next 25 years
  • the reasons for worsening jobs/housing balances in several regions
  • differences in the estimated effectiveness of travel demand management (TDM)
  • the lack of information on vehicle miles traveled in the MPO reports
  • the fact that the achievable 2020 reduction percentages for the three largest MPOs were actually higher than projected reductions in 2035

Questions Remain

In addition to the specific questions on the MPO scenario analysis above, several substantial issues remain for ARB to address in its deliberations in the coming months:

  • whether ARB should set a uniform statewide target, as suggested in the September 2009 RTAC findings, or allow that regional variations, matching the individual target proposals submitted last week
  • whether to set target ranges, rather than specific targets, that might allow the MPOs to perform within the ranges between “ambitious” and “achievable” as defined by each MPO
  • the extent to which MPOs and others might perform technical reasonableness checks on the MPO modeling analysis , using information on typical effectiveness of land use and TDM strategies that the University of California has been preparing for ARB
  • how to translate the final SB375 GHG reduction targets  into update goals in the AB 32 Scoping Plan which predicted that the land use and associated changes in transportation emphasis could deliver a 4% reduction in GHG (or 5 million metric tons) relative to 2020 trend-line conditions

ARB workshops and Board hearings on the targets begin on June 24 and through July. For more information, visit:  http://arb.ca.gov/cc/sb375/meetings/meetings.htm

Filed Under: CEQA, Greenhouse gases, Health

California MPOs Reveal Results of SB375 Soul-Searching

June 12, 2010 By Leave a Comment

In May, California’s Metropolitan Planning Organizations revealed their self-assessments of their ability to curb climate change.  MPOs representing over 90% of the state’s population went on record with estimates of their “ambitious and achievable” 25-year reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

The announcements followed more than seven months of public outreach and stakeholder discussions, scenario testing and modeling representing the “bottom up process” within the regions to assess their GHG reduction potential.  The process was prescribed by the State’s SB375 Regional Targets Advisory Committee (RTAC) in its September 2009 report California Air Resources Board. The resulting MPO reports will inform the Board’s deliberations on regional GHG targets required under the California’s landmark SB375 climate legislation.

MPOs representing the state’s four major regions Los Angeles (SCAG), San Francisco (MTC), San Diego (SANDAG) and Sacramento (SACOG) submitted a unified report, though the proposed land use and transportation strategies varied from region to region (as shown in the following table), as did each regions’ estimated performance levels.  The MPOs and Regional Transportation Planning Agencies representing Fresno, Kern, Kings, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, Butte, and Shasta counties also presented target-setting proposals.

Based on information provided for the May 25 RTAC meeting, the MPO land use and transportation scenarios identified as “ambitious but achievable” would reduce GHG per capita in 2020 to between 5% and 11% below 2005 levels.  Each MPO estimated that its region could double those reductions by 2020 through much more aggressive land use, demand management and transportation investment strategies that they deemed very ambitious, but not necessarily achievable.

Ambitious Enough?

The reported scenarios and performance levels provoked a full day’s public comment and discussion by the RTAC.  Observations by RTAC member Jerry Walters, along with his opinions on unresolved issues appear here. Questions include whether the MPO scenarios and GHG reductions are ambitious enough, including:

  • whether assumptions on land use respond to anticipated growth in market demand for compact growth
  • whether roadway pricing assumptions were ambitious enough, given the above-mentioned modest escalation in fuel prices projected over the next 25 years
  • the reasons for worsening jobs/housing balances in several regions
  • differences in the estimated effectiveness of travel demand management (TDM)
  • the lack of information on vehicle miles traveled in the MPO reports
  • the fact that the achievable 2020 reduction percentages for the three largest MPOs were actually higher than projected reductions in 2035

Questions Remain

In addition to the specific questions on the MPO scenario analysis above, several substantial issues remain for ARB to address in its deliberations in the coming months:

  • whether ARB should set a uniform statewide target, as suggested in the September 2009 RTAC findings, or allow that regional variations, matching the individual target proposals submitted last week
  • whether to set target ranges, rather than specific targets, that might allow the MPOs to perform within the ranges between “ambitious” and “achievable” as defined by each MPO
  • the extent to which MPOs and others might perform technical reasonableness checks on the MPO modeling analysis , using information on typical effectiveness of land use and TDM strategies that the University of California has been preparing for ARB
  • how to translate the final SB375 GHG reduction targets  into update goals in the AB 32 Scoping Plan which predicted that the land use and associated changes in transportation emphasis could deliver a 4% reduction in GHG (or 5 million metric tons) relative to 2020 trend-line conditions

ARB workshops and Board hearings on the targets begin on June 24 and through July. For more information, visit:  http://arb.ca.gov/cc/sb375/meetings/meetings.htm

Filed Under: CEQA, Greenhouse gases, Health

The Value of Walkability

September 30, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Walkability has been in the news alot this year.  It even has its own Wikipedia entry and an iPhone app.  And over the past few months, several articles or studies have reported findings on the benefits of walkable neighborhoods.  They have ranged from more general discussions to fairly detailed statistical analyses of neighborhood characteristics and their relationship property values. 

WalkingWalkability refers to the quality of walking in a given area and is typically measured in terms of the comfort, safety and convenience of walking.  Some measures of walkability such as Walkscore tend to focus more on the convenience of walking, measured in terms of the number of commercial establishments within walking distance.  Other measures tend to focus on all three, accounting for pedestrian collision history and physical attributes of sidewalks and crosswalks. Measures are also sometimes further broken down into the walkability of walking along a street and the walkability of crossing the street. 

One walkability study, published in August, using home sale records of 90,000 recent sales, found positive correlations between walkability and home prices in 13 of 15 regions studied.  Walkability in this case was measured by Walkscore (which calculates a property’s proximity to restaurants, schools, parks, and other amenities, assigning a score from zero to 100 depending on how many are within walking distance). 

Another study by the University of Arizona, also released in August, found similar results and also used Walkscore to conduct walkability calculations.  Among other findings, it noted that a 10 point increase in walkability resulted in a 5 to 8 percent increase in property values. 

Earlier in the year, walkability made the news when the real estate website Zillow began including Walkscore ratings in its search results.  In addition to all of the Walkscore based ratings, which are found in numerous permutations due to its freely available API, several articles have ranked cities according to their walking environment, including this one by Prevention magazine and another by Chris Leinberger. 

The recent attention to walkability is great news.  Hopefully this will lead to an increased interest in improving walking conditions as a whole, not only by improving the number of walking destinations but also by improving the safety and comfort of walking from point A to point B.

Filed Under: Health, Walkability

Healthy Transport Just a Policy Away

November 12, 2008 By Leave a Comment

This may seem like the episode where the Simpson’s get a monorail, but what if a healthy transport system were just a policy away?  What if this policy would cost you nothing more than you currently pay, would spur the creation of small entrepreneurs, would result in cleaner air, healthier humans, less polluted oceans, less reliance on fuel, and could help bring back a middle class?  Too good to be true?  Maybe not.  Maybe all it would require is the political will to change the way we fund transportation.  More specifically, instead of subsidizing roadway maintenance and operations (things that are now funded through property taxes and sales taxes – hence our inability to fund them adequately), what if we charged transportation system users based on their use of the roads?  Furthermore, what if we not only charged the cost of maintenance and operations, but also the environmental consequences of individual transport options? 

On a local level this would mean that people would pay per road-mile traveled and/or gallon of gas consumed.  The Puget Sound area has already looked at this concept and determined that a congestion pricing system using basic tolling principles would allow them to fund a variety of new roadways, not just maintain current roads (more info).  Oregon is considering a system that charges users based on their miles of travel (more info).  Regardless of the method of collection, congestion pricing does two critical things:  (1) it gathers fees from the people benefiting from transportation systems and allows those systems to be better maintained and, where appropriate, expanded; and (2) it affects people’s travel choices resulting fewer people driving.  If you don’t believe the latter, you need only to look at what the recent gasoline spike did to travel demand in the US (more info).

On all of the above, I am preaching to the choir, but this is just the start of the benefits of charging users for the real cost of transportation.  Imagine that we are now zooming out away from your region or state for our considerations for transportation charges and looking at interstate travel.  And what about international travel.  Do you know what industry is significantly less regulated than your auto, transports goods worldwide and fuels foreign economies by allowing rich Americans to purchase products made by people far less fortunate than ourselves?  Shipping. And what would be the consequences of requiring international shippers to pay to use clean fuels/alternative energy and for the damage they do to our environment?  Significantly higher shipping costs, possibly twice or more current rates.  This would change the economic model for the production of goods and services resulting in more goods and services produced locally.  The products would also cost more, which would constrain our wasteful consumption patterns and would impact those in the lowest economic conditions.  In exchange for increased costs, low and middle income citizens would get jobs. Jobs that are currently performed overseas could return to the US.  As more jobs returned to the US, demand for employees would increase resulting in increased wages and we would find a new, and more beneficial equilibrium of local employment versus importing products. 

ships

Here are some facts to add about container ships.  According to Earth Justice, a non-profit public interest law firm:

  • Ships generate 15 to 30 percent of the world’s smog-forming emissions.
  • Bunker fuel burned by ships is 1,000 times dirtier than highway diesel used by trucks and buses.
  • A single ship coming into harbor produces the smog-forming emissions of 350,000 new cars.

With appropriate pricing of interstate trucking and train travel, producing goods in Kentucky for export to California could become less economically viable resulting in even more locally produced products.  And if products begin to be produced very locally, let’s say that you bought shoes that were produced within 100 miles of where you live, the producers of these products would have smaller catchment areas and would produce smaller quantities.  Which means that the producers would be more likely to be small businesses (more info). This means new opportunities for entrepreneurs, who have proven track records of being better employers and exercising better environmental stewardship (actually the data shows that large employers are worse at these so by comparison small businesses are better – more info).  But small business opportunities could also provide new opportunities for ambitious individuals of all economic backgrounds enabling the American way – the smartest and hardest working reap the greatest rewards regardless of the income and net worth of their parents.

But why stop there on this vision, maybe fantasy, of the US with new transport policies?  What stores are most likely to sell the mass-produced products imported from inexpensive labor sources overseas – the big box stores.  And if these stores are replaced with smaller retailers embedded in neighborhoods, owned and operated by more new entrepreneurs, could we see the re-emergence of the mom and pop store.  At current, most small stores are niche operators selling high-end products, but what if a small produce or butcher store could compete effectively?  In past generations, it is these entrepreneurs who have bootstrapped themselves and their families from extreme poverty to middle class citizens.

ships

Taken in combination with increased demand for in-fill development; increased investment in transit systems; acknowledgement that our suburbs lead to fatter, less healthy citizens; and a desire to be energy independent, the bi-product of an appropriate transportation pricing policy in the US could lead to less auto travel demand and possibly less overall travel demand per capita.  Full-service neighborhood centers could re-emerge as the retail type of choice.  Accessed largely by foot, most discretionary trips would be shorter and even employment trips could shorten in reaction to the increased cost of longer trips.  This could help reverse obesity and diabetes trends; result in more balanced transportation systems (Complete Streets); and improved mental health.

So you live in the exurbs or suburbs and you like it.  Your area may never be served with efficient transit.  You like having your home set away from other non-residential uses and you prefer an area with fewer people.  Is there a place in this vision for you?  Well…if you can afford it.  Under the vision described above, the cost of transport to the average exurban household would increase dramatically.  Instead of being subsidized by all taxpayers, you would pay the real cost of your home choice.

- Matthew Ridgway

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