ITS UC Davis hosted a seminar/webinar titled “Greenhouse Gas emissions reduction potential and associated costs from transportation and land use strategies for 50 states”.  The speaker for this seminar was Dr. Lewison Lem of Jack Faucett Associates presenting preliminary results of an ongoing “50 states study”.  You can access the taped webinar at http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/events/seminarseries/winter10/ and highlights of the presentation are summarized below.    

“50 States Study”

Jack Faucett Associates and the Center for Climate Strategies (CCS) (www.climatestrategies.us) are completing 50 states worth of data and policy work on transportation sector ghg mitigation reduction potential, costs, and economic impacts.  Currently, there are many states with completed climate action plans or plans underway.  Part of the goal of this 50 states data is to answer the question of, “What would the impact be if all 50 states implemented climate action plans?”

CCS used results from 16 state planning processes to project ghg reduction potential and costs or savings to obtain 50 states worth of data.  Under the category of Transportation and Land Use, CCS looked at six policies and analyzed their potential impacts.  Much of the analysis was conducted using the US Department of Energy’s VISION tool.  These results came from 16 states worth of data on climate action plans.  The remaining 34 states were extrapolated using a “middle of the road” type plan of the existing 16. 

Transit Leverage Research

Dr. Lem also presented on a transit leverage literature review conducted for the state of New Jersey climate action plan (appendix located at http://www.nj.gov/dep/oce/gwr.htm).  The analysis of the potential for VMT reduction relies upon a well-established body of research and policy analysis that incorporates the concept of ‘transit leverage’. Statistical studies have shown a more energy-efficient use of the transportation system that is not fully accounted for simply by ‘mode shift’ from private automobiles to bus and rail transit. There has been increasing understanding that transit networks also allow for more trip chaining, shorter driving trips, and more walking trips.

The research shows an overall consensus on the general range of the transit leverage effect, namely somewhere between 2 and 7 times for North American urban areas. This means that for every mile reduction in VMT due to increased transit options and mode shift, between 2 and 7 additional miles are reduced due to indirect or secondary effects. 

The appendices also provide the following general methodology for quantifying and allocating the indirect effects of transit on VMT:

• An urban growth boundary can provide an impact roughly equal to the direct transit effect (i.e., it has a leverage of 1.0 “units” or 1.0 times the direct effect).
• A low level of travel demand management (TDM) programs can produce an effect roughly half as large as direct transit investment or 0.5x the direct effect.
• A high level of TDM programs can produce an additional 1.0 unit effect, for a total potential of 1.5x the direct effect from TDM programs.
• A program of significant auto use pricing (some combination of fuel taxes, tolls and other facility charges, parking charges, etc) can have an effect equal to the overall TDM effect.
• Congestion reduction associated with transit has an estimated effect that is 0.2x the direct transit effect.
• The remaining indirect effects may be considered to be mainly related to land use, including overall residential and job density, as well as transit-oriented development and other aspects of ‘smart growth’.

Biographical Sketch: Dr. Lewison Lem is climate change practice leader for Jack Faucett Associates. He has extensive experience in the areas of policy analysis at the intersection of transportation, energy, and the environment. Dr. Lem was formerly a senior tansportation policy analyst at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality, and the transportation policy manager of AAA of Northern California, Nevada, and Utah. Dr. Lem has assisted more than 30 states with consensus-building, policy development, and technical analysis for state energy and climate plans. Dr. Lem has managed economic and environmental studies for a wide range of public, private, and philanthropic organizations, including the United States Congress, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the Energy Foundation. He has been a visiting scholar and guest lecturer at several universities, including the University of California – Berkeley, Portland State University, the University of Hawaii, and Florida State University. Dr. Lem has a Bachelor of Arts in government studies from Harvard University, a Master of Public Administration degree from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. in urban planning from the University of California – Los Angeles.